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The primary role of the knowledge transfer activity in ACCESS is to turn scientific findings to the benefit of society. Its effectiveness will be measured through the impact on policy adjustment, adaptation strategies and in building societal resilience to global warming. Knowledge transfer will be achieved through a dedicated programme directed to develop long term dialogue with stakeholders. This will build on the experience of international partners.
Operational Oceanography
In the same way that the daily weather forecast is of enormous value to many people, so routine descriptions of anticipated conditions in coastal waters over the next several days will be of immense value to those who are involved in fisheries, shipping, tourism and the management of coastal zones in general. ACCESS is developing the tools necessary for this service and will initiate operational oceanography on a trial basis for the coastal zones of southern Africa. The long-term plan is to transfer this capability (computer models etc.) to agencies, such as weather services, that have the infrastructure and that are experienced in providing the public with operational services.
Seasonal and Inter-annual Climate Predictions
Several weather services have already extended the range of their forecasts to include predictions of changes in climatic conditions several months hence. These long-term forecasts usually assume that the changes in sea surface temperature patterns will be in accord with the usual seasonal cycle. In reality, sea surface temperature patterns can change radically from one summer (or winter) to the next. To take that important factor into account requires the operational oceanographic activities mentioned above, and the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models. Hence the research programme of ACCESS has as one of its goals improvements in the accuracy of predictions of climate fluctuations with which are associated phenomena such as prolonged droughts and severe floods.
Regional Global Warming Scenarios
A national response to climate changes associated with global warming, including policy development and adaptation, is predicated on the availability of contextualized climate projections, qualified by known uncertainty and confidence. The development of such information is a process requiring climate modelling in both dynamic and statistical forms. The regional projections thus developed then need to be tailored to the needs of stakeholders. This activity is underway and the results are communicated to stakeholders through regular workshops, seminars, and web-based dissemination of projections. Their use includes the briefing of those who participate in climate change negotiation forums. The research programme of ACCESS will lead to a reduction in the uncertainties of these forecasts.
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